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【经济学人】沙特卡塔尔断交的幕后故事

2017-08-23    来源:取经号JTW    【重庆时时彩五星定胆      美国外教 在线口语培训

本文地址:http://www.yeidj.com.cn/html/dailyfocus/Politics/20170823/124521.html
文章摘要:【经济学人】沙特卡塔尔断交的幕后故事,为例皓齿蛾眉出人,下图返本还元防洪法。

阿拉伯半岛乃弹丸之地,重庆时时彩五星定胆:无法满足各国统治者的野心。半岛各国在许多问题上形成竞争态势,如建立国际航运枢纽、航线、掌控媒体、派出军事力量和建立金融中心等。

Saudi Arabia cuts off Qatar

沙特与卡塔尔断交

TRIBAL feuding among the Al Thanis, Al Khalifas, Al Sabahs and Al Sauds has been the norm for centuries. From their beginnings in Nejd, the barren interior of the Arabian peninsula, they sparred for the best coastal spots from which to launch pirate raids into the Gulf. But even at the height of acrimony, they always observed unwritten rules of refuge and hospitality. When the tribes became states five decades ago, their people still travelled, lived and intermarried across lines in the sand. Their sheikhs might withdraw their ambassadors when tempers flared, but even when King Salman of Saudi Arabia went to war in Yemen in 2015, he let more than a million Yemenis in his kingdom stay.
Al Thanis、Al Khalifas 、Al Sabahs和Al Sauds四大中东王族之间的斗争已经延续了几个世纪。起初,他们争夺内志地区(阿拉伯半岛中部的一片贫瘠内陆)的沿海据点,并从此出发向海湾地区派出海盗进行劫掠。但即便是在斗争最激烈的时候,他们也遵守着不成文规则,提供基本的救济与待客之道。50年前,四大家族各自建国,他们的臣民仍然能在沙漠中互通往来、结婚或定居。酋长可能会在冲突发生的时候召回使节,甚至当沙特的萨尔曼王在2015年奔赴也门参战时,他仍允许超过100万也门人居留在沙特。

For Gulf Arabs, the expulsion of Qataris by Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia ordered on June 5th is more shocking than a declaration of war. It has torn up their code of conduct. With two weeks’ notice to leave, Saudi husbands fear they might forfeit their livelihoods if they follow their Qatari wives. The queues at Qatar’s only land border, with Saudi Arabia, already tail back for miles. The dunes have become barriers, preventing the entry of people and goods, including much of Qatar’s food supply. Short-haul tourism has collapsed. The UAE has criminalised any expression of sympathy for Qatar, tweets included. Diplomatic ties have been severed, and air, land and sea links closed by the three neighbours, as well as by Egypt and Yemen.
因此,当巴林、阿联酋和沙特三国在6月5日宣布驱逐卡塔尔人时,这一消息给海湾国家所带来的震惊不亚于宣战。这已经破坏了中东各国的行为准则。人们只有两周的准备时间,沙特丈夫们担心如果跟着他们的卡塔尔妻子一起离开将会失去自己的全部家当。卡塔尔与沙特接壤的唯一陆界上,人们已经排起了绵延数里的长队。沙特以沙丘做为障碍物,阻止人和货物的入境,尤其是卡塔尔的食物供给。短途旅游全部取消。任何同情卡塔尔的言论,包括推特,在阿联酋都将被视为违法。外交断绝,卡塔尔的海陆空对外联系也被巴林、阿联酋、沙特、埃及和也门切断。

qatar
Protruding like a sore thumb from the Arabian peninsula, tiny Qatar has long bugged its neighbours. But the explanations offered for the sudden, unprecedented closure seem inadequate. Only a fortnight beforehand, the Qatari emir had stood smiling alongside those who have now banished him. In a show of unity, they feted Donald Trump, the American president, in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia blames Qatar’s involvement in terrorism, which to those recalling the role Saudi jihadists played on 9/11 sounds rich. Qatar’s ties to Iran, too, irk Saudi clerics and kings, particularly the joint and expanding development of South Pars, the world’s largest gasfield. But Kuwait and Oman are on similarly good terms with the Islamic Republic, and Dubai, one of the UAE’s seven emirates, provided the biggest back door into Iran when the world imposed sanctions on it.
小小的卡塔尔就像阿拉伯半岛上伸出的一根大拇指,它的存在一直令邻国不爽。但如此突然地、前所未有地封锁,官方给出的解释并不令人信服。两周之前,为了宴请美国总统特朗普,卡塔尔的酋长还跟如今排挤他的邻国领导人们微笑寒暄,以示团结。沙特指责卡塔尔涉足恐怖活动,然而正是沙特圣战者发动了911事件。卡塔尔与伊朗关系密切,还在世界最大的气田South Pars项目中联合开采,这也令沙特权贵不满。然而科威特和阿曼同样也与伊斯兰共和国有类似的合作,阿联酋七个酋长国之一的迪拜也在世界制裁伊朗时为其提供后援。

The pretensions of Qatar’s ruling Al Thani family to global grandeur have also vexed other rulers. The statelet has sought significance by offering a sanctuary to the Muslim Brotherhood, the Arab world’s foremost Islamist movement. Diplomats found in Qatar a place in which to talk to Islamists, including Yousef Qaradawi, the Brotherhood’s favourite preacher; Khaled Meshal, until recently the leader of Hamas, the militant Palestinian group; Abbassi Madani from Algeria; and several of the Taliban’s leaders.
卡塔尔统治者Al Thani家族在世界舞台上的胆大妄为也同样惹恼了其他邻国。身为弹丸小国,卡塔尔竟然为穆斯林兄弟会这个阿拉伯世界中最重要的伊斯兰团体提供避难。在卡塔尔的外交官们能够直接对话伊斯兰教主义者,包括穆兄会最有名的牧师Yousef Qaradawi、直到最近还在担任哈马斯(巴勒斯坦境内的伊斯兰抵抗运动)领袖的Khaled Meshal、阿尔及利亚的Abbassi Madani以及其他塔利班首领。

A media empire led by Al Jazeera, a satellite TV channel, has for decades helped Qatar find a mass audience. It offered a platform to dissidents from across the region (except Qatar), giving voice to popular anger which erupted in the Arab spring of 2011. It then goaded revolutionaries to take up arms, and endorsed Islamists who stood in elections. Qatar bankrolled their campaigns and filled their coffers when they took power.
数十年来,以半岛电视台(卫星电视频道)为首的媒体帝国为卡塔尔赢得了众多粉丝。半岛电视台为卡塔尔之外的半岛异议分子提供发声平台,帮助他们在2011年爆发的阿拉伯之春中发泄愤怒。在其煽动下,革命派拿起武器,支持伊斯兰教徒参与选举。在大选中,卡塔尔为伊斯兰主义者提供资金支持;在其当选后,卡塔尔又提供了大量经济援助。

The Arabian peninsula is not big enough, however, to realise all its rulers' ambitions. Rivalries have grown as each struggles to create global shipping hubs, airlines, media arms, expeditionary forces and financial districts. A generation ago the Gulf was led by consensus-builders, whose prime concern was stability. But petrodollars, vast arsenals and Mr Trump's blessing risk turning their descendants into vainglorious autocrats with talents for inflaming, not compromising. Saudi Arabia's young deputy crown prince and de facto ruler, Muhammad bin Salman, it is said, likes to be called Alexander [the Great]. Their intelligence agents run amok, spreading dirt on each other, true or false. One of the triggers offered for the latest showdown is the revelation in Qatari-owned media of e-mails purportedly hacked from the account of the UAE's ambassador in Washington, Yousef Otaiba.
阿拉伯半岛乃弹丸之地,无法满足各国统治者的野心。半岛各国在许多问题上形成竞争态势,如建立国际航运枢纽、航线、掌控媒体、派出军事力量和建立金融中心等。上一代的海湾国家领导者达成共识,力图稳定。但是石油美元、庞大的军火储备以及特朗普带来的巨额协议使得这一地区的继任者变成自负的独裁者,他们不懂得妥协只会火上浇油。据称,沙特年轻的副王储,也是真正的统治者穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼喜欢人们称他是(伟大的)亚历山大大帝。他们的情报机构胡作非为,不顾真相互相抹黑。卡塔尔控制的半岛电视台曝光了阿联酋驻美大使尤瑟夫.阿尔奥泰巴(Yousef  Otaiba)遭黑客窃取的电子邮件内容,这是此次断交事件的导火索之一。

For now, the Al Thanis have the means to withstand the pressure. The sheikhdom is the world's biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas. Mr Trump might celebrate Qatar's come-uppance in tweets, but he must still consider the roughly 10,000 soldiers stationed there at al-Udeid, America's largest air base in the Middle East (though the Emiratis would prefer he move it their way). Egypt, which has also severed ties, knows that Qatar may retaliate by expelling its workers if it hinders Qatari exports through the Suez canal. Even the UAE worries that Qatar might shut off the gas pipeline supplying its domestic market.
截至目前为止,卡塔尔王室Al-Thani家族还有办法顶住断交压力。卡塔尔是全球最大的液化天然气生产国。或许特朗普会在推特上发文庆祝卡塔尔遭到报应,但他必须考虑到美国驻扎在中东的最大空军基地乌代德(al-Udeid)空军基地(阿联酋宁愿特朗普将其搬迁)的近1万名美军战士。埃及也宣布了与卡塔尔断交,但也意识到如果限制卡塔尔从苏伊士运河运输出口产品会遭至卡塔尔的报复,从而驱逐埃及工人。阿联酋甚至担忧卡塔尔会切断供应阿联酋的天然气管道。

But things can get much nastier. After Saudi Arabia closed Qatar's only land border, Iran offered to make up the shortfall. If Qatar drifts further into Iran's orbit, Gulf officials warn that more "punitive, economic measures" could follow. An attack, claimed by Islamic State, on Tehran's parliament on June 7th has heightened the tension: Iran is blaming Saudi Arabia, though without evidence.
但事情可能会更糟糕。沙特封闭了卡塔尔唯一的陆地边界之后,伊朗向卡塔尔提供了物资供应。如果卡塔尔同伊朗越走越近,海湾国家将会实施更为严厉的经济制裁手段。6月7日,德黑兰的伊朗议会大厦遭遇恐怖袭击,ISIS声称对袭击事件负责。此次袭击进一步加剧了局势的紧张,尽管并没有确凿的证据,伊朗就德黑兰袭击事件谴责了沙特政府。

There will be few winners.
Airline embargoes harm tourism across all Gulf states, in the eyes of foreigners who cannot tell one sheikhdom from other, just when they are trying to diversify their economies. Investors already unnerved by Yemen's protracted war have further cause to fear Arabian instability. Mr Trump's recent proposal for an Arab NATO looks aborted. Plans for the Gulf Co-operation Council to forge a common foreign and economic policy lie in tatters. If only the world had a superpower focused more on diplomacy and less on selling weapons.
这场断交事件几乎不会有赢家。航空禁令损害了海湾国家的旅游业,哪怕各个酋长国试图在经济发展上做到差异化,但外国人很难在这些个酋长国中区分彼此。旷日持久的也门内战早已使投资者失去信心,而现如今也有了更多理由担忧阿拉伯地区的局势动荡。特朗普总统最近关于建立"阿拉伯北约"的计划似乎已经破产。海湾合作委员会试图采取统一的外交政策和经济政策的努力已被现实打碎,除非世界上有某个超级大国会重视外交途径解决,而非热衷于兜售武器。(译者注:此处讽刺川普中东之行大卖军火)


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